Supplying Timber Issue 9 0 - Autumn 2025 - Flipbook - Page 23
———— 2026 CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY FORECAST ————
LOOKING AHEAD TO 2026
UK construction is forecast to edge back into growth, with housing leading
demand and timber playing a central role. But this recovery remains fragile,
with high costs, planning delays, and political uncertainty still threatening
momentum, according to new forecasts from Glenigan and the CPA.
T
Construction Output % growth
3.7%
3.5%
2025
2026f
2027
(e)
(f)
(p)
1.9%
2.0%
0.5%
2023
2024
Source: ONS, Construction Products Association.
↑
Image: © The latest
Construction Growth
Forecast from
the Construction
Products Association
clear certainty is uncertainty,”
citing risks including 昀椀scal
tightening, labour shortages,
insolvencies, and rising costs.
Conditional growth in the
housing sector
Private housing, a cornerstone
of timber demand, is expected
to see some of the strongest
gains, but the forecasts
show that this optimism is
conditional.
Glenigan projects private
housing project starts to rise
from £27.34 billion in 2025 to
£29.95 billion in 2026 and £35.31
billion in 2027, year-on-year
growth of 10% and 18%. This
is linked to lower interest rates
and a gradual improvement in
household 昀椀nances.
SUPPLYING TIMBER
23
AUTUMN 2025
The CPA’s 昀椀gures are broadly
consistent, with completions
forecast to grow by 6% in 2026
and 5% in 2027. However, their
report highlights persistent
barriers to delivery, including
planning delays, the regulatory
burden of the Building Safety
Act, and patchy government
implementation of housing
programmes.
Timber’s role in meeting
housing demand is well
established, with around 30% of
homes in the UK already built
using timber frames.
O昀昀-site timber solutions are
seen as key to scaling housing
delivery quickly, but any
slowdown in planning reform
or funding releases could stall
momentum.
THE MARKET
THE
MARKET
he UK construction
industry faces a
mixed outlook for
2026 and 2027, with
forecasts pointing to a slow
but steady recovery tempered
by deep uncertainty over
government policy, global
conditions, and supply chain
pressures.
While housing is expected to
drive growth, underpinned by
ambitious targets and renewed
funding, the industry remains
vulnerable to economic shocks
and systemic challenges.
Timber’s importance in
particular is growing as a
sustainable, fast-build solution,
but its expansion will depend
heavily on reforms translating
into real delivery.
Both Glenigan’s Construction
Industry Forecast 2025–2027
and the Construction Products
Association’s (CPA) Summer
2025 Forecast emphasise that
while growth is achievable,
con昀椀dence in the industry
remains fragile.
Glenigan notes that “economic
growth is expected to
accelerate further during the
second half of this year and
maintain momentum during
2026 and 2027", but warns that
this is contingent on falling
borrowing costs and easing
geopolitical tensions.
The CPA stresses that “the only
