Supplying Timber Issue 9 0 - Autumn 2025 - Flipbook - Page 24
———— 2026 CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY FORECAST ————
TDUK Structural Timber Imported Price Index Jan 2020 - June 2025
250
179
200
2014 = 100
152
147
150
100
115
79
107
111
Jan 2023
June 2023
99
113
107
June 2024
Jan 2025
130
86
50
0
Jan 2020
June 2020
Social housing and retro昀椀t
challenges
THE MARKET
Social housing activity is also
expected to strengthen in the
coming years, but faces similar
uncertainties.
Glenigan reports growth from
£8.07 billion in 2025 to £9.68
billion in 2027, with annual
increases of 3%, 8%, and 11%.
The report says: “Social housing
construction activity is expected
to pick up over the forecast
period… additional funding
commitments in the Spending
Review are expected to support
a strengthening development
pipeline and subsequent starts
during 2026 and 2027.”
The CPA provides context,
showing how delivery has
been constrained in recent
years. “The social rent tenure
has accounted for a rising
proportion of GLA-funded
a昀昀ordable starts in London,
from 22.4% in 2017/18 to 72.8%
in 2024/25... The SAHP targets a
considerable increase to 60%.”
However, the CPA warns that
resources are being stretched
thin: “Repairs, maintenance and
improvement of the existing
Jan 2021
June 2021
Jan 2022
June 2022
stock is a key focus for social
housing providers...However,
limited social housing budgets
are struggling to cover the
increase in R&M pipelines and
growth rates are expected to
remain constrained.”
This re昀氀ects the wider
challenge of delivering
a昀昀ordable housing at scale
despite funding pledges,
particularly if planning reforms
stall or local authorities face
further budgetary constraints.
Recovery for commercial and
industrial sectors
Growth forecasts for o昀케ces,
retail and logistics suggest
some momentum returning to
these markets, but once again
they highlight caution among
investors.
Glenigan expects o昀케ce
project starts to grow by 23%
in 2026 and 7% in 2027, with
retail up 17% and 9%, and
industrial facilities increasing
7% and 9%. These 昀椀gures
suggest a recovery from recent
lows, yet Glenigan’s analysis
makes clear that the sector
remains vulnerable, noting: “The
SUPPLYING TIMBER
24
Jan 2024
sector is expected to return
to growth from this year as
lower borrowing costs renew
investor interest...regulatory
changes and growing demand
for premium o昀케ce space
with a good environmental
performance is forecast to
generate retro昀椀t and new build
opportunities over the forecast
period.”
The investment appetite is
therefore tied to regulatory
certainty and interest rate cuts,
both of which remain at risk
from global economic volatility.
Timber’s growing role in highquality, low-carbon o昀케ce
projects o昀昀ers opportunity,
but large-scale adoption will
depend on investor con昀椀dence.
Long-term uncertainty for
infrastructure and civil
engineering
Infrastructure spending is
another key driver of growth,
with Glenigan forecasting civil
engineering project starts
of £9.99 billion in 2026 and
£10.23 billion in 2027 – annual
growth of 12% and 2%. This
is supported by multi-year
AUTUMN 2025
June 2025
↑
TDUK's Structural
Timber Imported
Price Index gives an
overview of changing
timber price trends.
