TDUK SupplyingTimber Issue 8 DIGITAL - Magazine - Page 24
———— 2025 CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY FORECAST ————
TDUK Structural Timber Imported Price Index June 2019 - December 2024
250
179
200
2014 = 100
152
147
150
100
87
115
79
107
111
Jan 2023
June 2023
99
113
107
June 2024
Dec 2024
86
50
0
June 2019
THE MARKET
homes, which it should be
noted is still an improvement
on recent years. The recently
published National Planning
Policy Framework (NPPF) could
ease planning constraints,
particularly for smaller
housebuilders. However, larger
developers suggest that the
real impact of these changes
will not be felt on the ground
until 2027 due to pipeline
projects and low demand.
In addition to planning
hurdles, builders face rising
costs from regulatory
requirements, including
water and nutrient neutrality,
Biodiversity Net Gain, and
new building standards.
Furthermore, the introduction
of the Future Homes and
Buildings Standards, while
positive for energy e昀케ciency, is
expected to add another layer
of compliance, complexity and
costs for developers.
Nevertheless, there are
early signs that new private
sector housing is starting to
recover. The latest National
House-Building Council
(NHBC) 昀椀gures show that
Jan 2020
June 2020
Jan 2021
June 2021
Jan 2022
new home registrations in the
private sector climbed 11%
in 2024. The NHBC recorded
68,987 registrations last year
compared with 62,291 in 2023,
although registrations in the
a昀昀ordable and rental sectors
dropped 18% to 35,245. This
meant total registrations were
"broadly similar" to 2024, totally
104,232 compared with 105,071
in 2023.
Breaking it down by regions,
seven out of the 12 UK regions
saw a rise in registrations in
2024 against the previous
year, with North West and
Merseyside (+17%), the West
Midlands (+16%) and Scotland
(+15%) enjoying the biggest
rises. London's new home
registrations plummeted 48%,
however, which the NHBC
said was linked to "昀椀nancial
challenges for housing
associations and building safety
costs on tall buildings".
RM&I to see a gradual
return to growth
The RM&I sector, valued
at £34.9 billion in 2023, has
experienced its own set of
SUPPLYING TIMBER
24
June 2022
Jan 2024
challenges due to shifting
consumer spending patterns.
The peak of RM&I activity
occurred in late 2021 and early
2022, fuelled by the "race
for space" as homeowners
sought to improve their living
environments both during
and post-COVID. However,
as the cost-of-living crisis
intensi昀椀ed, discretionary
home improvement spending
declined, leading to stagnation
in the sector.
A signi昀椀cant decline of 4.0%
in RM&I output was recorded in
2024. However, with real wage
growth expected to remain
positive and a gradual decline
in interest rates anticipated,
it is hoped that homeowners
will soon resume their home
improvement projects,
particularly in the latter half of
2025. This is why the CPA has
forecast that the RM&I sector
will grow by 3.0% in 2025 and
4.0% in 2026.
Homeowners' willingness to
invest in home improvements
remains critical to the
construction sector's overall
performance. With sustained
SPRING 2025
↑
TDUK's Structural
Timber Imported
Price Index gives an
overview of changing
timber price trends.
